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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalSEA leads series 2-1

Away

Mariners

90-72

8–4

at

Home

Tigers

87-75

SEA 55%DET 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Comerica Park · FS2, MLB Net, FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%SEAStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers
  • Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
  • Jack FlahertyPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Ibáñez singled to right, Torkelson scored.8–4
  • 9Torkelson doubled to right, Jones scored and Rogers scored.8–3
  • 9Raleigh homered to left center (391 feet), Arozarena scored.8–1
  • 8Crawford hit sacrifice fly to left, Raley scored.6–1
  • 6Crawford homered to right (397 feet).5–1
  • 5Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Dingler scored, Báez out at second.4–1
  • 4Raleigh singled to center, Canzone scored, Crawford to second.4–0
  • 4Suárez homered to left center (422 feet).3–0
  • 3Arozarena singled to center, Crawford scored.2–0
  • 3Crawford singled to left, Robles scored on throwing error by left fielder Greene, Crawford to second.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mariners 55%

LeanHit
SEA 55%DET 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
SEA 55%
ML SEA -135 / DET +115
Pre-line forecast
SEA 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SEA 54%
Ratings vs. market
−1.8 pts
SEA: Elo 53.5%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
SEA -124
DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 4.0 – 3.5 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEADETWhy
Team rating15341502Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0−10SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +24 EloSEA 53.5%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 58.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 57.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSEA 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatDET
9th of 304.7Runs scored4.711th of 30
17th of 304.3Runs allowed4.316th of 30
10th of 30+0.4Margin+0.411th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 102–828th of 30
13th of 3039–41Road vs home46–3512th of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo149526th of 30
7th of 301534Elo rating150219th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEADET
Run line71–9377–90
Last 105–56–4
Favorite36–6949–67
Underdog35–2428–23
Overs–unders90–7489–78
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 9–11 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 20.