Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez doubled to left, Raleigh scored.2–3
- 8Torkelson doubled to right, Greene scored and Torres scored.2–2
- 6Polanco homered to left (369 feet).0–2
- 4Polanco homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -155 / SEA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.2 pts
- DET: Elo 44.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +41 Elo | SEA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–89 | 70–93 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 49–66 | 36–69 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 89–77 | 90–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–8 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 19.
- Oct 4DET 3 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 63%Miss
- Jul 13SEA 8 @ DET 4Picked SEA 51%Hit
- Jul 12SEA 15 @ DET 7Picked DET 50%Miss
- Jul 11SEA 12 @ DET 3Picked DET 71%Miss
- Apr 2DET 2 @ SEA 3Picked DET 54%Miss
- Apr 1DET 4 @ SEA 1Picked SEA 59%Miss
- Mar 31DET 9 @ SEA 6Picked SEA 51%Miss
- Aug 15SEA 1 @ DET 2Picked SEA 55%Miss