Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker singled to right, Freeland scored.4–5
- 4Thomas doubled to right, Santana scored and Smith scored, Thomas out stretching at third.4–4
- 3Betts homered to center (388 feet), Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.2–4
- 3Freeland homered to right (413 feet).2–1
- 3Marte homered to right (391 feet).2–0
- 2Thomas doubled to right, Moreno scored, Smith thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML ARI +194 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.8%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -208
- ARI +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +76 Elo | LAD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15541st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 79–100 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 61–91 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 84–78 | 89–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 20–23 LAD in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.