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Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

Final/11LAD win series 4-3

Away

Dodgers

93-69

5–4

at

Home

Blue Jays

94-68

LAD 54%TOR 46%

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Rogers Centre · Fox

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%LADStart12345678910Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Max MuncyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays
  • Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Max ScherzerPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 11Smith homered to left (366 feet).5–4
  • 9Rojas homered to left (387 feet).4–4
  • 8Muncy homered to right (373 feet).3–4
  • 6Giménez doubled to right, Clement scored.2–4
  • 6Edman hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.2–3
  • 4T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.1–3
  • 3Bichette homered to center (442 feet), Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.0–3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 54%

Toss-upHit
LAD 54%TOR 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
LAD 54%
ML LAD -126 / TOR +110
Pre-line forecast
LAD 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 51%
Ratings vs. market
−2.7 pts
LAD: Elo 51.2%, market 53.9%
Fair odds
LAD -117
TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 4.4 – 4.1 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADTORWhy
Team rating15671546Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−12−17LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +8 EloLAD 51.2%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 58.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 57.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 53.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatTOR
2nd of 305.1Runs scored4.94th of 30
12th of 304.2Runs allowed4.519th of 30
4th of 30+0.9Margin+0.59th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 105–512th of 30
12th of 3039–40Road vs home54–272nd of 30
30th of 301493Opponent Elo150211th of 30
1st of 301567Elo rating15465th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADTOR
Run line79–9999–80
Last 105–56–4
Favorite61–9045–53
Underdog18–953–27
Overs–unders88–90101–78
Overs–unders, last 102–85–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 8–7 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.