Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 18Freeman homered to center (406 feet).5–6
- 7Ohtani homered to left center (401 feet).5–5
- 7Bichette singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.5–4
- 5Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored.4–4
- 5Ohtani doubled to left, E. Hernández scored.4–3
- 4Giménez hit sacrifice fly to center, Barger scored, Clement to second.4–2
- 4Kirk homered to center (394 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.3–2
- 3Ohtani homered to right (389 feet).0–2
- 2T. Hernández homered to left (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML TOR +165 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.6%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -174
- TOR +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +5 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 5th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 96–79 | 78–96 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 45–53 | 60–87 |
| Underdog | 50–26 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 100–75 | 87–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–6 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Oct 25LAD 5 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 24LAD 4 @ TOR 11PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Aug 10TOR 5 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Aug 9TOR 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 59%Hit
- Aug 8TOR 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 55%Hit
- Apr 28LAD 1 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 51%Hit
- Apr 27LAD 4 @ TOR 2Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Apr 26LAD 12 @ TOR 2Picked LAD 53%Hit