Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani homered to right (357 feet), Edman scored.4–11
- 6Kirk homered to center (403 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–11
- 6Barger homered to center (413 feet), Lukes scored, Giménez scored and Springer scored.2–9
- 6Giménez singled to right, Varsho scored, Lukes to second, Clement to third.2–5
- 6Lukes walked, Kirk scored, Clement to second, Varsho to third.2–4
- 6Clement singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Varsho to second, Kirk to third.2–3
- 4Varsho homered to center (423 feet), Kirk scored.2–2
- 3Smith singled to right, Betts scored, Smith to second, Freeman thrown out at third.2–0
- 2E. Hernández singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -160 / TOR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.3%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −6 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +30 Elo | LAD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Elo rating | 15425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–95 | 95–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 59–86 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 49–25 |
| Overs–unders | 86–86 | 99–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.