Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger homered to right center (414 feet).13–4
- 8Raleigh homered to right (337 feet).12–4
- 8Arozarena homered to left center (396 feet).12–3
- 6Kirk homered to right (354 feet), Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.12–2
- 6Lukes grounded out to first, Giménez scored, Springer to second.9–2
- 5Clement singled to right, Santander scored, Kirk thrown out at third.8–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to center (406 feet).7–2
- 4Springer homered to center (431 feet).6–2
- 3Varsho doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Kirk scored.5–2
- 3Lukes scored, Kirk to second, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Kirby.3–2
- 3Lukes scored on Kirby wild pitch, Kirk to second on wild pitch by Kirby, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Kirby.3–2
- 3Giménez homered to right center (399 feet), Clement scored.2–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (414 feet), Arozarena scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML TOR +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–76 | 75–94 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 37–69 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 95–73 | 93–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–9 SEA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.
- Oct 13SEA 10 @ TOR 3PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Miss
- Oct 12SEA 3 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked TOR 60%Miss
- May 11TOR 9 @ SEA 1Picked SEA 62%Miss
- May 10TOR 6 @ SEA 3Picked SEA 57%Miss
- May 9TOR 6 @ SEA 3Picked SEA 55%Miss
- Apr 20SEA 8 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 51%Miss
- Apr 19SEA 8 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 50%Miss
- Apr 18SEA 1 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 52%Hit