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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalSEA leads series 2-0

Away

Mariners

90-72

10–3

at

Home

Blue Jays

94-68

SEA 47%TOR 53%

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Rogers Centre · Fox, FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%SEAStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Jorge PolancoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Logan GilbertPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays
  • Nathan LukesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
  • Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.10–3
  • 7Naylor homered to right (359 feet), Polanco scored.9–3
  • 6Crawford singled to left, Rivas scored.7–3
  • 5Polanco homered to center (400 feet), Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.6–3
  • 2Lukes singled to right, Clement scored, Springer to third.3–3
  • 1Kirk singled to center, Lukes scored.3–2
  • 1Lukes reached on infield single to first, Springer scored on throwing error by first baseman Naylor, Lukes to second.3–1
  • 1Rodríguez homered to left (370 feet), Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.3–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blue Jays 53%

Toss-upMiss
SEA 47%TOR 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TOR 53%
ML SEA +105 / TOR -125
Pre-line forecast
TOR 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 52%
Ratings vs. market
−0.8 pts
TOR: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
TOR -114
SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEATORWhy
Team rating15361537Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+1−2SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +17 EloTOR 52.4%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 53.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 52.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatTOR
9th of 304.7Runs scored4.94th of 30
17th of 304.3Runs allowed4.519th of 30
10th of 30+0.4Margin+0.59th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 105–512th of 30
13th of 3039–41Road vs home54–272nd of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo150210th of 30
7th of 301536Elo rating15376th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEATOR
Run line74–9492–75
Last 105–57–3
Favorite37–6944–50
Underdog37–2547–25
Overs–unders92–7694–73
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 8–11 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.