Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco singled to right, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second.3–1
- 6Polanco singled to left, Rodríguez scored.2–1
- 6Raleigh homered to right center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Springer homered to right (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML SEA +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +11 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–41 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–94 | 92–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 37–69 | 44–49 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 92–75 | 94–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–11 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.