New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stanton singled to left, Judge scored and Rice scored.7–13
- 7Rice doubled to right, Grisham scored, Judge to third.5–13
- 7Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.4–13
- 7Judge singled to center, McMahon scored, Grisham to second, Goldschmidt to third.3–13
- 6Varsho homered to right (346 feet).2–13
- 6Bellinger homered to right (370 feet), Judge scored.2–12
- 5Springer homered to center (403 feet).0–12
- 4Varsho homered to right center (407 feet), Kirk scored.0–11
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to left (415 feet), Giménez scored, Straw scored and Springer scored.0–9
- 3Clement singled to left, Varsho scored, Clement to second.0–5
- 3Varsho doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–4
- 3Kirk grounded out to first, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.0–3
- 2Clement homered to left (354 feet), Varsho scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +3 Elo | NYY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301553 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–88 | 90–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 66–77 | 44–49 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 45–24 |
| Overs–unders | 79–87 | 92–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 19–21 TOR in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 40.