Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bregman doubled to left, Story scored.3–1
- 7Yoshida singled to center, Rafaela scored and Sogard scored.2–1
- 2Volpe homered to right (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML BOS +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +15 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 50–318th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15553rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 77–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 65–75 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 78–84 | 78–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 24–15 NYY in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 39.