Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–4
- 6Story homered to left center (381 feet).3–3
- 5Judge singled to left, Grisham scored.2–3
- 3Story singled to center, Duran and Rafaela scored, Sogard to second.2–2
- 1Rice homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML BOS +165 / NYY -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- BOS +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +46 Elo | NYY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 50–318th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 8th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–79 | 77–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 65–76 |
| Underdog | 44–22 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 78–85 | 78–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 25–15 NYY in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 40.
- Sep 30BOS 3 @ NYY 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Miss
- Sep 14NYY 4 @ BOS 6Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Sep 13NYY 5 @ BOS 3Picked NYY 58%Hit
- Sep 12NYY 4 @ BOS 1Picked NYY 52%Hit
- Aug 24BOS 2 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 59%Hit
- Aug 23BOS 12 @ NYY 1Picked BOS 52%Hit
- Aug 22BOS 1 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 63%Miss
- Aug 21BOS 6 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 57%Miss