New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4
- Luis GilPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lukes singled to center, Giménez scored.1–10
- 8Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Straw scored.1–9
- 8Giménez doubled to left, Varsho scored, Straw to third.1–8
- 8Kirk homered to left (377 feet).1–7
- 7Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored, Lukes to third.1–6
- 7Lukes doubled to right, Giménez scored and Clement scored, Springer to third.1–5
- 7Giménez singled to right, Varsho scored, Straw to second.1–3
- 6Bellinger walked, Volpe scored, Grisham to second, Wells to third.1–2
- 2Kirk homered to left (394 feet).0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (369 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML NYY +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +11 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301556 | Elo rating | 15328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–87 | 89–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 66–77 | 43–49 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 45–24 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 91–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 19–20 TOR in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 39.