Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting3-6
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 15Polanco singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second, Arozarena to third.2–3
- 7Rivas singled to left, Polanco scored, Naylor to second.2–2
- 6Carpenter homered to center (411 feet), Báez scored.2–1
- 2Garver hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- DET: Elo 43.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–91 | 72–94 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 50–67 | 37–69 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 91–78 | 92–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–10 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 22.
- Oct 8SEA 3 @ DET 9PlayoffsPicked DET 50%Hit
- Oct 7SEA 8 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Hit
- Oct 5DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 58%Miss
- Oct 4DET 3 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 63%Miss
- Jul 13SEA 8 @ DET 4Picked SEA 51%Hit
- Jul 12SEA 15 @ DET 7Picked DET 50%Miss
- Jul 11SEA 12 @ DET 3Picked DET 71%Miss
- Apr 2DET 2 @ SEA 3Picked DET 54%Miss