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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalTOR wins series 3-1

Away

Blue Jays

94-68

5–2

at

Home

Yankees

94-68

TOR 39%NYY 61%

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Yankee Stadium · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Nathan LukesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
  • Seranthony DominguezPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Yankees
  • Ryan McMahonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Cam SchlittlerPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Judge singled to left, Domínguez scored.5–2
  • 8Straw singled to right, Kirk scored.5–1
  • 7Lukes singled to center, Clement scored and Giménez scored.4–1
  • 5Springer hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored.2–1
  • 3McMahon homered to right (357 feet).1–1
  • 1Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Springer scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 61%

LeanMiss
TOR 39%NYY 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
NYY 61%
ML TOR +145 / NYY -175
Pre-line forecast
NYY 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 56%
Ratings vs. market
−4.6 pts
NYY: Elo 56.3%, market 60.9%
Fair odds
NYY -156
TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORNYYWhy
Team rating15371552Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−3+8TOR: Louis Varland: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +44 EloNYY 56.3%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 58.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 58.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 60.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatNYY
4th of 304.9Runs scored5.21st of 30
19th of 304.5Runs allowed4.215th of 30
9th of 30+0.5Margin+1.02nd of 30
12th of 305–5Last 109–11st of 30
10th of 3040–41Road vs home50–318th of 30
10th of 301502Opponent Elo149918th of 30
5th of 301537Elo rating15523rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORNYY
Run line91–7479–89
Last 107–34–6
Favorite44–4967–78
Underdog46–2512–11
Overs–unders94–7181–87
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 22–20 NYY in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 42.