Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rice hit sacrifice fly to right, Judge scored.6–9
- 5Wells singled to right, Rosario scored, Wells thrown out at second.6–8
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (409 feet).6–7
- 4Judge homered to left (386 feet), Wells scored and Grisham scored.6–6
- 3Stanton hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.6–3
- 3Judge doubled to left, Grisham scored.6–2
- 3Santander singled to right, Varsho scored and Clement scored.6–1
- 3Clement singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Clement to second, Varsho to third.4–1
- 3Varsho singled to center, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.3–1
- 1Stanton singled to left, Judge scored, Rice to second.2–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to center (427 feet), Schneider scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML TOR +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +23 Elo | NYY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 50–318th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 91–73 | 78–89 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–49 | 66–78 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 93–71 | 80–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 22–19 NYY in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 41.
- Oct 5NYY 7 @ TOR 13PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Miss
- Oct 4NYY 1 @ TOR 10PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Sep 7TOR 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 62%Hit
- Sep 6TOR 1 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Sep 5TOR 7 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 53%Miss
- Jul 23NYY 4 @ TOR 8Picked NYY 55%Miss
- Jul 22NYY 5 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 52%Miss
- Jul 21NYY 1 @ TOR 4Picked NYY 52%Miss