Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Blue Jays

94-68

8–2

at

Home

Mariners

90-72

TOR 45%SEA 55%

You didn't pick this one.

T-Mobile Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.

SEA75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Andres GimenezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Max ScherzerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners
  • Josh NaylorBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Luis CastilloPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Giménez singled to center, Clement scored and Straw scored.8–2
  • 7Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (359 feet).6–2
  • 6Suárez singled to right, Polanco scored, Naylor thrown out at third.5–2
  • 4Springer scored on Brash wild pitch.5–1
  • 4Springer scored on Brash wild pitch.5–1
  • 4Springer doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–1
  • 3Varsho walked, Lukes scored, Kirk to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.3–1
  • 3Giménez homered to right (364 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.2–1
  • 2Naylor homered to center (394 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mariners 55%

LeanMiss
TOR 45%SEA 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
SEA 55%
ML TOR +115 / SEA -135
Pre-line forecast
SEA 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SEA 56%
Ratings vs. market
+1.1 pts
SEA: Elo 56.4%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
SEA -124
TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORSEAWhy
Team rating15381535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−24+5TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +44 EloSEA 56.4%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 50.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSEA 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatSEA
4th of 304.9Runs scored4.79th of 30
19th of 304.5Runs allowed4.317th of 30
9th of 30+0.5Margin+0.410th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 107–33rd of 30
10th of 3040–41Road vs home51–307th of 30
10th of 301502Opponent Elo149624th of 30
6th of 301538Elo rating15357th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysMariners
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORSEA
Run line93–7675–95
Last 107–35–5
Favorite44–5137–70
Underdog48–2538–25
Overs–unders96–7394–76
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 12–9 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.