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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Mariners

90-72

2–6

at

Home

Blue Jays

94-68

SEA 47%TOR 53%

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Rogers Centre · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%SEAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Logan GilbertPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays
  • Addison BargerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Trey YesavagePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Guerrero Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Kirk to second on wild pitch by Brash.2–6
  • 7Guerrero Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Kirk to second on wild pitch by Brash.2–6
  • 6Suárez reached on infield single to first, Arozarena scored.2–5
  • 6Naylor homered to right (389 feet).1–5
  • 5Guerrero Jr. homered to left (384 feet).0–5
  • 3Barger homered to right center (403 feet), Clement scored.0–4
  • 2Kiner-Falefa reached on infield single to shortstop, Clement scored, Barger to second.0–2
  • 2Barger singled to right, Varsho scored, Clement to third.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blue Jays 53%

Toss-upHit
SEA 47%TOR 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TOR 53%
ML SEA +105 / TOR -125
Pre-line forecast
TOR 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 51%
Ratings vs. market
−2.0 pts
TOR: Elo 51.2%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
TOR -114
SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEATORWhy
Team rating15341539Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+2−12SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +9 EloTOR 51.2%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 51.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 50.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatTOR
9th of 304.7Runs scored4.94th of 30
17th of 304.3Runs allowed4.519th of 30
10th of 30+0.4Margin+0.59th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 105–512th of 30
13th of 3039–41Road vs home54–272nd of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo150210th of 30
7th of 301534Elo rating15395th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEATOR
Run line76–9694–77
Last 106–46–4
Favorite37–7144–52
Underdog39–2549–25
Overs–unders96–7698–73
Overs–unders, last 106–48–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 10–13 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.