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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast

FinalSEA leads series 3-2

Away

Blue Jays

94-68

2–6

at

Home

Mariners

90-72

TOR 52%SEA 48%

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T-Mobile Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.

SEA75%50%75%TORStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • George SpringerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners
  • Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
  • Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Suárez homered to right (351 feet), Polanco scored, Naylor scored and Arozarena scored.2–6
  • 8Raleigh homered to left (348 feet).2–2
  • 6Clement singled to right, Kirk scored, Clement to second.2–1
  • 5Springer doubled to center, Barger scored.1–1
  • 2Suárez homered to left center (396 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blue Jays 52%

Toss-upMiss
TOR 52%SEA 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TOR 52%
ML TOR -120 / SEA +100
Pre-line forecast
TOR 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 52%
Ratings vs. market
−0.6 pts
TOR: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
TOR -109
SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.8 – 3.7 SEA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORSEAWhy
Team rating15411532Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13−7TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +11 EloTOR 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 53.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 53.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatSEA
4th of 304.9Runs scored4.79th of 30
19th of 304.5Runs allowed4.317th of 30
9th of 30+0.5Margin+0.410th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 107–33rd of 30
10th of 3040–41Road vs home51–307th of 30
10th of 301502Opponent Elo149624th of 30
5th of 301541Elo rating15328th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysMariners
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORSEA
Run line94–7675–96
Last 107–35–5
Favorite44–5137–71
Underdog49–2538–25
Overs–unders97–7395–76
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 13–9 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.