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Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalTOR leads series 3-2

Away

Blue Jays

94-68

6–1

at

Home

Dodgers

93-69

TOR 37%LAD 63%

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Dodger Stadium · Fox

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Trey YesavagePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Dodgers
  • Enrique HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Blake SnellPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Clement scored.6–1
  • 7Bichette singled to right, Giménez scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–1
  • 7Guerrero Jr. walked, Barger scored on Henriquez wild pitch, Giménez to second.4–1
  • 4Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored.3–1
  • 3E. Hernández homered to left (407 feet).2–1
  • 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (394 feet).2–0
  • 1Schneider homered to left (373 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 63%

SolidMiss
TOR 37%LAD 63%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
LAD 63%
ML TOR +160 / LAD -185
Pre-line forecast
LAD 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 57%
Ratings vs. market
−6.1 pts
LAD: Elo 56.7%, market 62.8%
Fair odds
LAD -169
TOR +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORLADWhy
Team rating15451569Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−4+1TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +47 EloLAD 56.7%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 63.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 62.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 62.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatLAD
4th of 304.9Runs scored5.12nd of 30
19th of 304.5Runs allowed4.212th of 30
9th of 30+0.5Margin+0.94th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 108–22nd of 30
10th of 3040–41Road vs home52–293rd of 30
11th of 301502Opponent Elo149330th of 30
5th of 301545Elo rating15691st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORLAD
Run line98–7978–98
Last 106–44–6
Favorite45–5360–89
Underdog52–2618–9
Overs–unders101–7688–88
Overs–unders, last 107–33–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 6–7 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.