Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith homered to left center (418 feet), Betts scored.2–8
- 7Betts singled to center, Tucker scored.2–6
- 7Tucker doubled to right, Ohtani scored.2–5
- 5Smith reached on infield single to first, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Ohtani to third.2–4
- 5Pages homered to left center (400 feet), Muncy scored and T. Hernández scored.2–3
- 4Perdomo homered to right (398 feet), Carroll scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML ARI +229 / LAD -286
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- ARI +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15511st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 79–100 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 61–91 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 84–78 | 89–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 20–22 LAD in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.