Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting3-4
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth scored, Machado out at second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–3
- 3Cronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- 3Cronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- 3Tatis Jr. singled to right, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML DET -102 / SD -118
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +3 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–92 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–68 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 91–79 | 71–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.