Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler singled to right, Greene scored, McGonigle to third.5–2
- 8McGonigle singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Greene to third.4–2
- 8Greene reached on infield single to shortstop, Carpenter scored, Keith to second, Torres to third.2–2
- 6Laureano doubled to right, Merrill scored.1–2
- 6Torkelson singled to left, Torres scored.1–1
- 4Andujar reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored, Merrill to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML DET +108 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SD: Elo 55.3%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +37 Elo | SD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–92 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–68 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 91–79 | 71–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.