Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Laureano homered to left (423 feet).8–2
- 6Bogaerts doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.8–1
- 5Dingler homered to left center (403 feet), McGonigle scored.8–0
- 3Meadows singled to left, Torkelson scored and McGonigle scored.6–0
- 1Dingler singled to left, Torkelson scored, McGonigle to third.4–0
- 1McGonigle doubled to right, Keith scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to third.3–0
- 1Torkelson walked, Torres scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -126 / SD +104
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- DET: Elo 44.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +39 Elo | SD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–92 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–68 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 91–79 | 71–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.