Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Jose FernandezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fernandez homered to left center (409 feet), Perdomo scored and Thomas scored.5–7
- 8Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll out at third.5–4
- 8Carroll doubled to center, McCann scored and Lawlar scored, Marte to third.5–3
- 4Fernandez homered to left (408 feet).5–1
- 3Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored.5–0
- 3Greene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Keith scored.4–0
- 3McGonigle reached on infield single to first, Rogers scored, Keith to second.2–0
- 3Rogers doubled to center, Meadows scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML DET -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −13 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 17 |
| 8th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15411st of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–92 | 83–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 50–68 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 50–28 |
| Overs–unders | 91–79 | 84–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.