New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gorman homered to right center (419 feet).4–2
- 6Soto walked, Young scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.4–1
- 6Young doubled to right, Baty scored.3–1
- 5Bichette singled to right, Benge scored, Soto to third.2–1
- 1Burleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored.1–1
- 1Bichette grounded out to second, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -156 / STL +129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +9 Elo | NYM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 7.33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 7.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–89 | 76–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–71 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 85–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–7 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.