Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soto doubled to center, Alvarez scored, Lindor thrown out at home.4–3
- 10Davis singled to center, Cook scored, Gonzales to third.4–2
- 10O'Hearn singled to center, Reynolds scored.3–2
- 5Soto singled to right, Lindor scored.2–2
- 3Lowe homered to right center (390 feet).2–1
- 2Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Robert Jr. scored.1–1
- 1O'Hearn singled to left, Cruz scored, Lowe to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML PIT +153 / NYM -186
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -165
- PIT +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +14 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +72 Elo | NYM 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–54 | Road vs home | 48–329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 73–89 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 44–71 |
| Underdog | 68–44 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 66–96 | 77–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–12 NYM in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.