New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Norby homered to left (422 feet), Edwards scored.2–6
- 5Edwards singled to center, Ramírez scored.2–4
- 5Marsee grounded out to second, Hernández scored.2–3
- 5Hernández tripled to right, Conine scored and Johnston scored.2–2
- 1Alonso doubled to left, J. Soto scored.2–0
- 1Lindor homered to right center (392 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | NYM: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +21 Elo | NYM 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–45 | Road vs home | 36–4226th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–87 | 89–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–69 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 79–45 |
| Overs–unders | 77–82 | 81–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 21–15 MIA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.