Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Robert Jr. homered to left center, Bichette scored and Polanco scored.2–4
- 11Reynolds reached on infield single to third, Mangum scored.2–1
- 10Torrens singled to left, Baty scored, Young to second, Semien to third.1–1
- 10Gonzales singled to center, Reynolds scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML PIT +144 / NYM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.8%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- NYM -155
- PIT +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–54 | Road vs home | 48–329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 25th of 301481 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 73–89 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 44–71 |
| Underdog | 68–44 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 66–96 | 77–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–11 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.