New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Winn reached on infield single to second, Wetherholt scored.1–2
- 6Gorman singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.1–1
- 6Soto homered to right (344 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML NYM -161 / STL +133
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.2%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -144
- STL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.46th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 171–1 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 17 |
| 24th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150317th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 14–8 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.