New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Ramon UriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Urías homered to center (409 feet).0–3
- 3Herrera doubled to left, Scott II scored and Wetherholt scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -153 / STL +126
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.1%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -137
- STL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −13 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 6.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 171–0 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 17 |
| 25th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–89 | 76–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–71 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 85–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 14–7 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.