Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 1Carroll homered to center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -156 / ARI +129
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- DET: Elo 47.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 3.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 17 |
| 10th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15343rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–6 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.