Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini singled to center, Buxton scored and Martin scored, Keaschall to second.3–7
- 4Keaschall homered to left (367 feet), Larnach scored.3–5
- 4McKinstry singled to right, Keith and Torres scored, McKinstry to second, Torkelson to third.3–3
- 4Keith doubled to right, McGonigle scored, Torres to third.1–3
- 3Lewis singled to left, Keaschall scored, Wallner to second.0–3
- 3Wallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Keaschall to third.0–2
- 3Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML DET +104 / MIN -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +11 Elo | DET 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 146926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 3–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 3–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–17 MIN in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 39.