Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Caminero walked, Díaz scored, Simpson to second, Aranda to third.4–1
- 10Palacios homered to right (382 feet), Williamson scored.3–1
- 4Caminero homered to left (397 feet).1–1
- 2Wallner homered to right (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML TB -108 / MIN -112
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 29 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1–1 | 3–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1–1 | 3–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–8 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.