Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz tripled to center, Palacios scored.7–1
- 5Feduccia singled to right, Williamson scored.6–1
- 5Williamson singled to center, Mullins scored.5–1
- 3Williamson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mullins scored, Simpson out at second.4–1
- 2Lee singled to center, Wallner scored on error, Jeffers to second, Lee to second, Jeffers safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Mullins.3–1
- 2Aranda doubled to right, Williamson scored and Palacios scored, Díaz to third.3–0
- 2Díaz hit by pitch, Simpson scored, Palacios to second, Williamson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -118 / MIN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TB: Elo 47.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +12 | TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Mick Abel: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–5 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 11th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–8 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.