St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gorman hit sacrifice fly to left, Wetherholt scored.5–3
- 6Báez hit sacrifice fly to right, Dingler scored.4–3
- 5Herrera singled to right, Pagés scored and Scott II scored.4–2
- 5Scott II hit sacrifice bunt, Church scored, Scott II to first on throwing error by pitcher De Jesús, Scott II to second, Pagés to third.2–2
- 5Pagés singled to left, Gorman scored, Church to third.1–2
- 3Carpenter homered to center (425 feet), Keith scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML STL +124 / DET -149
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 57.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 12th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–8 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.