St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling homered to right (350 feet), Torkelson scored.6–11
- 7Torres homered to right center (364 feet).6–9
- 5McKinstry singled to right, Greene scored, McKinstry to second, Dingler to third.6–8
- 5Walker homered to left center (459 feet), Herrera scored, Burleson scored and Gorman scored.6–7
- 5Burleson doubled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.2–7
- 4Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Meadows scored.1–7
- 4McKinstry homered to right (399 feet), Dingler scored.1–6
- 3Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, McGonigle scored.1–4
- 3Walker singled to left, Herrera scored.1–3
- 1Carpenter homered to left (359 feet), Torres scored.0–3
- 1Torres singled to center, Keith scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Torres to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML STL +144 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- DET: Elo 56.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -155
- STL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −11 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +45 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.46th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 18th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–7 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.