Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9McGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored.2–4
- 7McGonigle singled to left, Torkelson scored, Meadows to second.1–4
- 5Bell doubled to left, Jeffers scored.0–4
- 5Jeffers doubled to right, Keaschall and Martin scored.0–3
- 5Keaschall singled to center, Buxton scored, Martin to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -171 / MIN +141
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DET: Elo 54.4%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 147226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–18 MIN in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 40.