Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Owen CaissieBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Pauley scored and Marsee scored.1–8
- 7Caissie singled to center, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second, Hicks to third.1–6
- 6Sanoja singled to center, Caissie scored.1–5
- 5Stewart homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- 4Sanoja singled to right, Caissie scored.0–4
- 4Caissie doubled to left, Hicks scored and Lopez scored.0–3
- 1Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edwards scored on fielding error by third baseman Suárez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML CIN +104 / MIA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 6–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 147726th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 13–10 MIA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.