Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored.2–1
- 7Pederson homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- 4Suárez singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML CIN +109 / TEX -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +35 Elo | TEX 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
| 14th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4–1 | 4–2–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4–1 | 4–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–4 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.