Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to left, Burger scored, McCutchen to second.5–2
- 5Henderson singled to right, Cowser scored, Alexander to third.4–2
- 2Pederson hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored.4–1
- 2Burger singled to right, Higashioka scored, Seager to second, Nimmo to third.3–1
- 2Nimmo singled to right, Carter scored, Higashioka to second.2–1
- 1Henderson homered to center (410 feet).1–1
- 1Burger grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Nimmo scored, Burger safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Bassitt, Langford third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML TEX +109 / BAL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.6%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.718th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 16 |
| 5th of 301536 | Opponent Elo | 147126th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 81–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 56–40 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 69–93 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–10 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.