Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott singled to left, Harper scored, Bohm to third.8–3
- 7Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored, Langford to second.8–2
- 7Duran doubled to left, Carter scored.7–2
- 6García hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.6–2
- 6Bohm hit by pitch, Crawford scored, Schwarber to second, Turner to third.6–1
- 6Higashioka singled to right, McCutchen scored.6–0
- 4McCutchen homered to left (347 feet), Seager scored and Burger scored.5–0
- 3Nimmo homered to center (410 feet), Haggerty scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML TEX +135 / PHI -163
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- TEX +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +4 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +75 Elo | PHI 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–48 | Road vs home | 55–261st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 86–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 60–69 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 78–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–7 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.