Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harper singled to right, Realmuto scored, Kemp to third.5–4
- 10McCutchen singled to left, Langford scored, McCutchen to second.5–3
- 10Nimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.4–3
- 10Nimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.4–3
- 9Marsh singled to right, Sosa scored and García scored.3–3
- 9García doubled to left, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.3–1
- 3Burger homered to left (374 feet), Nimmo scored.3–0
- 1Seager homered to right center (392 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML TEX +128 / PHI -154
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- TEX +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–48 | Road vs home | 55–261st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 86–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 60–69 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 78–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–7 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.