Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds homered to right (413 feet), Gonzales scored.8–3
- 9Gonzales singled to left, Horwitz scored and Davis scored, Gonzales to second.6–3
- 6Suárez homered to left (410 feet), Stewart scored.4–3
- 6Horwitz walked, Cruz scored, Triolo to second, Yorke to third.4–1
- 4Lowe doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Cruz homered to right (407 feet), Reynolds scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / CIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 3.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +42 Elo | CIN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 2.826th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 17 |
| 13th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 23–18 CIN in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 41.