Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suárez homered to left center (431 feet), McLain scored and Stewart scored.2–3
- 4Abreu homered to right center (385 feet), Contreras scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / CIN +108
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.3%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- CIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +9 Elo | BOS 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 45–3514th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 83–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 57–31 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 67–97 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–5 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.