Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Myers singled to left, Friedl scored, McLain to second.5–6
- 9Abreu homered to right (360 feet).5–5
- 7Abreu doubled to right, Duran scored.4–5
- 5De La Cruz homered to right (379 feet).3–5
- 4Rafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- 4Rafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- 4Anthony singled to right, Narváez scored, Rafaela to third.2–4
- 3Stewart homered to center (399 feet).1–4
- 3Story homered to left center (402 feet).1–3
- 2McLain doubled to center, Hayes scored.0–3
- 1Suárez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, McLain scored, Stewart to second.0–2
- 1Stewart singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -136 / CIN +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- CIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +16 Elo | CIN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 45–3514th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 83–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 57–31 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 67–97 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–4 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.