Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting3-4
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting3-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to right, Anthony scored, Story to third.3–0
- 9Story singled to left, Mayer scored, Anthony to second.2–0
- 7Rafaela singled to center, Mayer scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -163 / CIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- CIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 3.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 45–3514th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BOS |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 83–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 57–31 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 67–97 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.