Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-2
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Benson tripled to right, Suárez scored.0–2
- 4Steer hit sacrifice fly to right, Stewart scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML PIT +113 / CIN -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −10 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +13 Elo | CIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.38th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 16 |
| 11th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15238th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 83–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 68–44 | 57–31 |
| Overs–unders | 66–96 | 67–97 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 22–17 CIN in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.