Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz homered to right center (403 feet), Gonzales scored.8–3
- 8Stewart homered to right center (376 feet).6–3
- 8De La Cruz homered to right (334 feet).6–2
- 4Cruz homered to right center (444 feet).6–1
- 3Marte scored on error, Hayes safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Cruz, Trevino safe at second on error.5–1
- 2Reynolds homered to left center (417 feet).5–0
- 2O'Hearn homered to center (401 feet), Bart scored and Cruz scored.4–0
- 2Yorke hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +34 Elo | CIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.3 | Runs scored | 2.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 2.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 17 |
| 10th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 151012th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 83–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 68–44 | 57–31 |
| Overs–unders | 66–96 | 67–97 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 22–18 CIN in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.