Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward doubled to center, Cowser scored and O'Neill scored.8–5
- 9Seager homered to right center (395 feet).8–3
- 7Jansen homered to left center (409 feet), Seager scored and Burger scored.7–3
- 6Nimmo singled to center, Carter scored.4–3
- 5Henderson doubled to center, Ward scored and Alexander scored.3–3
- 5Seager singled to center, Langford scored.3–1
- 5Langford tripled to right, Nimmo scored.2–1
- 4Alonso homered to center (400 feet).1–1
- 3Duran homered to left (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -126 / BAL +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +14 Elo | TEX 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.322nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.818th of 30 |
| 3rd of 173–1 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 17 |
| 7th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148124th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–79 | 81–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 56–40 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 69–93 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 13–10 BAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.